42% of nation to be obese by 2030, study predicts
May 7th, 2012
12:22 PM ET

42% of nation to be obese by 2030, study predicts

After years of rising obesity rates in the United States, recent statistics show the rates may have steadied. But that may not be enough, according to a new report released on Monday - it estimates about 42% of the U.S. population will be obese by 2030.

The report suggests an additional 30 million Americans will be obese in 18 years. This would cost an additional $549.5 billion on medical expenditures, according to the report in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

“If you could keep the obesity rates at today’s level, you would save $550 billion,” said Eric Finkelstein, lead author of the report.

About 35% of U.S. adults are obese today, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The obesity projections were released at the CDC's Weight of the Nation conference, which is focused on preventing this growing health problem. A four-part HBO documentary with the same title begins airing next week.

Finkelstein and co-authors estimate that 11% of the population will be severely obese by 2030. Severe obesity is defined as a body mass index over 40 or being roughly 100 pounds overweight. Obese people have shorter life expectancies and greater lifetime medical costs, “suggesting that future healthcare costs may continue to increase even if obesity prevalence levels off,” wrote the authors.

“Those individuals have much greater risk of early mortality, diabetes, heart disease,” said Finkelstein. “They’re much, much more expensive and they’re on the rise, partly because 50 years ago, it was really, really hard to weigh that much. You’d have to eat all the time.”

But modern convenience has made an abundance of cheap and easy calories available, he added.

The authors calculated the future obesity and severe obesity prevalence based on population factors such as gender, age, race, ethnicity, employment data and recent trends.

Prior estimates assumed the level of obesity would continue unabated.

“We thought those estimates were too high,” said Finkelstein, health economist at Duke Global Health Institute. “A better way would be to look at underlying factors of obesity like fast food prices, price of alcohol, internet access, changing demographics.”

They also looked at variables such as the cost of healthy food, grocery prices, the number of fast food restaurants and annual household income.

The projections were based on data from a 2008 study of adults. It did not include children - where one out of three is overweight or obese.

“We just looked at adults,” said Finkelstein. “The reality is obese kids almost certainly become obese adults. Our estimates may be conservative.”

“We’re almost surely wrong in our forecast,” he added. “That’s the thing about forecasts - they are guesses. This is our best guess. The world changes, if new drugs or technology comes out, if the government comes out and makes major changes, lots could happen. If in fact we’re wrong and obesity rates are less, I’d be happy.”

Anti-obesity efforts such as recreational facilities, better urban design, work site health promotion, new drugs and technologies could help, wrote the authors.

soundoff (940 Responses)
  1. Jolie Cobb

    Hello! I just would like to give a huge thumbs up for the great info you have here on this post. I will be coming back to your blog for more soon.


    March 24, 2021 at 21:45 | Report abuse | Reply
  2. Zana Ardizone

    I've been surfing online more than 3 hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours. It is pretty worth enough for me. In my view, if all webmasters and bloggers made good content as you did, the internet will be a lot more useful than ever before.


    March 24, 2021 at 23:49 | Report abuse | Reply
  3. Jarrod Palczynski

    Great post. I am facing a couple of these problems.


    March 25, 2021 at 00:04 | Report abuse | Reply
  4. Wyatt Elsheimer

    Hello there, simply changed into alert to your weblog via Google, and located that it's really informative. I am going to watch out for brussels. I will be grateful in case you proceed this in future. A lot of other folks will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!


    March 25, 2021 at 02:49 | Report abuse | Reply
  5. Horacio Hindall

    You completed certain nice points there. I did a search on the subject and found a good number of folks will go along with with your blog.


    March 25, 2021 at 06:38 | Report abuse | Reply
  6. Lindsey Wienert

    Lovely blog! I am loving it!! Will be back later to read some more. I am bookmarking your feeds also


    March 25, 2021 at 06:59 | Report abuse | Reply
  7. Veda Fabroquez

    Its such as you learn my thoughts! You seem to know a lot approximately this, like you wrote the e book in it or something. I believe that you could do with some p.c. to drive the message home a bit, but other than that, this is wonderful blog. A great read. I will definitely be back.


    March 25, 2021 at 07:38 | Report abuse | Reply
  8. Troy Hotten

    Wow! Thank you! I always wanted to write on my site something like that. Can I implement a part of your post to my site?


    March 25, 2021 at 10:10 | Report abuse | Reply
  9. vách ngăn vệ sinh

    I am not positive the place you are getting your information, however great topic.

    I needs to spend some time finding out much more
    or understanding more. Thank you for magnificent
    information I used to be in search of this info for my mission.

    March 28, 2021 at 11:03 | Report abuse | Reply
  10. Mickellpyr

    How to meet up with men and women on facebook itself so dating proper after divorce proceedings

    oct. 22, 2012 PRLog dating is hard for anyone, simply going out with in the aftermath of split for guys is a completely extra amount condition. you don't only appearance normal injuries of choosing someone that you come in contact with both emotionally and physically, insurance plan you have undergone the divorce, potentially you might have many other luggage. in this, educational several divorced wow going out with tips and hints are vitally important.

    the first thing to remember is,the actual dating is totally different from previously often. Finding an associate online isn't just excellent, also often one the easiest way in order to satisfy anybody by way of with whom you genuinely have appreciable link. producing the facebook to reach older women is an easy and no daunting way to implement choosing the reference to others. figuring out enhance profits with facebook or myspace to meet lady will probably be the first way.

    it is far from so important to spotlight how to attract teens on facebook, the women can be there in addition to a world of availabilities looking at you. mostly the group of friends because of tagged fine friends. require you to even more company trades-people, buddys also as family? don't go to bananas, although post a lot of people that you're social with in the real world. these individuals definitely isn't who want to adult dating, nevertheless they may well relatives them selves that will be you can periods.

    Once you have plenty of your friends, spend an afternoon on the woking platform. If your mates upload something you love it, solution. This is simplest way to increase your youtube mates. based on all bad reactions, you may then be able to date brides in tagged. within these remark post in addition,yet arguments in all probability you'll spot many others, Some of which you'll agree with and enjoy the discussions. in having a nice relationships, asiame.com scam there is not a reasons why it is impossible to combine kinds of women to the children post.

    April 2, 2021 at 12:10 | Report abuse | Reply
  11. what is tadalafil

    tadalafil online https://elitadalafill.com/ generic tadalafil

    April 3, 2021 at 13:49 | Report abuse | Reply
  12. alprostadil or yohimbine

    where to buy alprostadil gel https://alprostadildrugs.com/ edex (alprostadil)

    April 4, 2021 at 22:44 | Report abuse | Reply
  13. cheapest sildenafil online

    cheapest sildenafil india https://eunicesildenafilcitrate.com/ best sildenafil pills

    April 4, 2021 at 23:25 | Report abuse | Reply
  14. vardenafil tablets 20 mg

    warnings for vardenafil https://vegavardenafil.com/ vardenafil cvs

    April 6, 2021 at 21:59 | Report abuse | Reply
  15. why does my authorize.net not work for cbd sales

    Good Afternoon everyone ! can anyone suggest where I can purchase CBD Chocolate?


    April 12, 2021 at 01:03 | Report abuse | Reply
  16. generic tadalafil

    tadalafil daily use https://elitadalafill.com/ tadalafil 30 mg

    April 13, 2021 at 13:15 | Report abuse | Reply
  17. erectile dysfunction treatment

    does erectile dysfunction mean heart problems https://canadaerectiledysfunctionpills.com/ erectile incontinence

    April 14, 2021 at 02:13 | Report abuse | Reply
  18. alprostadil injection video

    edex (alprostadil) https://alprostadildrugs.com/ buy muse alprostadil urethral suppository

    April 16, 2021 at 05:26 | Report abuse | Reply
  19. viagra sin recetas en farmacias de canada

    viagra purchase from canada https://canadaviagrastore.com/ viagra canada pharmacy

    April 16, 2021 at 13:59 | Report abuse | Reply
  20. cialis viagra combination canadian pharmacy

    how can i order cialis from a canadian pharmacy https://canadacialisstore.com/ buy generic cialis without prescription canadian pharmacy

    April 19, 2021 at 14:25 | Report abuse | Reply
  21. buy viagra from canada

    help me please find a place to buy viagra in canada https://canadaviagrastore.com/ generic viagra canada

    April 20, 2021 at 05:46 | Report abuse | Reply
  22. tadalafil pills 20mg

    tadalafil https://elitadalafill.com/ buy tadalafil

    April 20, 2021 at 07:35 | Report abuse | Reply
  23. where can you buy zithromax

    can i get zithromax over the counter https://zithromaxes.com/ azithromycin 500mg chlamydia side effects

    April 20, 2021 at 10:22 | Report abuse | Reply
  24. sildenafil online prescription

    sildenafil price 20mg https://eunicesildenafilcitrate.com/ where to buy sildenafil usa

    April 21, 2021 at 12:36 | Report abuse | Reply
  25. zithromax tablets

    zithromax directions https://zithromaxes.com/ z pak direction

    April 21, 2021 at 19:40 | Report abuse | Reply
  26. alprostadil muse doesn't work

    bremelanotide vs alprostadil https://alprostadildrugs.com/ trimix vs alprostadil

    April 21, 2021 at 20:46 | Report abuse | Reply
  27. canadian customs pills vitamins

    canadian generic pills https://canadapillstorex.com/ canadian customs pills vitamins

    April 21, 2021 at 22:33 | Report abuse | Reply
  28. buy tadalafil us

    generic tadalafil 40 mg https://elitadalafill.com/ tadalafil gel

    April 22, 2021 at 22:16 | Report abuse | Reply
  29. best canadian mail order pharmacies for diet pills

    best canadian mail order pharmacies for diet pills https://canadapillstorex.com/ canadian pharmacies ed pills

    April 23, 2021 at 06:05 | Report abuse | Reply
  30. how long do the effects of vardenafil last

    vardenafil teva pharmaceutical https://vegavardenafil.com/ vardenafil coupon

    April 24, 2021 at 17:25 | Report abuse | Reply
  31. Aubrie

    I was wondering if anyone knows what happened to Dimepiece Los Angeles celebrity streetwear brand? I am unable to check out on Dimepiecela site. I have read in Marie Claire that they were bought out by a UK-based hedge fund for $50m. I've just bought the Dimepiece Retro Unisex Heavy Blend™ Crewneck Sweatshirt from Ebay and absolutely love it xox


    April 24, 2021 at 22:27 | Report abuse | Reply
  32. injectable ed drugs

    alprostadil suppository uses https://alprostadildrugs.com/ alprostadil comes from

    April 25, 2021 at 09:31 | Report abuse | Reply
  33. vardenafil sublingual generic

    vardenafil vs viagra vs cialis https://vegavardenafil.com/ teva pharms vardenafil

    April 26, 2021 at 00:59 | Report abuse | Reply
  34. sildenafil 20 mg preion online

    sildenafil tablets 100mg for sale https://eunicesildenafilcitrate.com/ sildenafil 100mg for sale uk

    April 26, 2021 at 12:17 | Report abuse | Reply
  35. layla mattress reddit

    Hello there, simply turne into alert to your blog through Google, and located thhat it's really informative.
    I am gonna watch out foor brussels. I'll be grateful
    for thosxe who continue this in future. Many other folks will likely
    be benefited out of your writing. Cheers!

    my wbsite :: layla mattress reddit

    April 27, 2021 at 01:10 | Report abuse | Reply
  36. sildenafil generic otc

    sildenafil discount generic https://eunicesildenafilcitrate.com/ sildenafil 20 mg discount coupon

    April 28, 2021 at 02:56 | Report abuse | Reply
  37. erection pills online viagra

    for erectile health and better blood flow https://canadaerectiledysfunctionpills.com/ erectile medication over counter

    April 28, 2021 at 23:00 | Report abuse | Reply
  38. pfizer viagra canada pharmistry

    generic drug for viagra in canada https://canadaviagrastore.com/ how much is viagra in canada

    April 28, 2021 at 23:50 | Report abuse | Reply
  39. avanafil

    avanafil 100 buy avanafil

    April 29, 2021 at 14:57 | Report abuse | Reply
  40. cialis canadian pharmacy

    do you need prescription for canadian perscribition of cialis in usa https://canadacialisstore.com/ canadian pharmacy generic cialis

    April 30, 2021 at 22:27 | Report abuse | Reply
  41. canadian customs pills vitamins

    best canadian mail order pharmacies for diet pills https://canadapillstorex.com/ canadian customs pills vitamins

    April 30, 2021 at 22:57 | Report abuse | Reply
  42. viagra canada pharmacy

    canada 20 viagra https://canadaviagrastore.com/ pfizer viagra canada pharmacy

    May 1, 2021 at 15:47 | Report abuse | Reply
  43. canadian pharmacy no perscription generic cialis

    cialis at canadian pharmacy https://canadacialisstore.com/ buy cialis online canadian

    May 2, 2021 at 10:05 | Report abuse | Reply
  44. chloroquine new zealand

    chloroquine malaria https://chloroquineorigin.com/ chloroquine drug class

    May 2, 2021 at 17:53 | Report abuse | Reply
  45. avanafil

    avana tablet buy avana uk

    May 5, 2021 at 09:21 | Report abuse | Reply
  46. chloroquine side effects

    chlorodine https://chloroquineorigin.com/ cholorquine

    May 6, 2021 at 06:48 | Report abuse | Reply
  47. dapoxetine

    priligy cost dapoxetine 10 mg

    May 7, 2021 at 12:41 | Report abuse | Reply
  48. dapoxetine

    dapoxetine hydrochloride 60 dapoxetine tablets price

    May 8, 2021 at 00:55 | Report abuse | Reply
  49. chloroquine autophagy

    chloroquinw https://chloroquineorigin.com/ chlorowuine

    May 8, 2021 at 11:22 | Report abuse | Reply
  50. priligy

    dapoxetine prescription usa dapoxetine 100 mg

    May 8, 2021 at 20:40 | Report abuse | Reply
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Post a comment


CNN welcomes a lively and courteous discussion as long as you follow the Rules of Conduct set forth in our Terms of Service. Comments are not pre-screened before they post. You agree that anything you post may be used, along with your name and profile picture, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and the license you have granted pursuant to our Terms of Service.

About this blog

Get a behind-the-scenes look at the latest stories from CNN Chief Medical Correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, Senior Medical Correspondent Elizabeth Cohen and the CNN Medical Unit producers. They'll share news and views on health and medical trends - info that will help you take better care of yourself and the people you love.