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June 21st, 2012
02:00 PM ET
Mutant bird flu would be airborne, scientists sayHere's what it takes to make a deadly virus transmissible through the air: as few as five genetic mutations, according to a new study. This research, published in the journal Science, is the second of two controversial studies to finally be released that examines how the H5N1 bird flu virus can be genetically altered and transmitted in mammals. Publication of both studies had been delayed many months due to fears that the research could be misused and become a bio-security threat. Although these particular engineered forms of H5N1 have not been found in nature, the virus has potential to mutate enough such that it could become airborne. H5N1 influenza can be deadly to people, but in its natural forms it does not easily transfer between people through respiratory droplets, as far as scientists know. The World Health Organization has recorded 355 humans deaths from it out of 602 cases, although some research has questioned this high mortality rate. The journals Science and Nature had agreed to postpone the publication of the two studies related to the genetically altered virus. In January, the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity recommended that this research be published without "methods or details" that terrorists might be able to use for biological weapons. The board also said the data could assist in preparing for a possible future outbreak, however. Then in February, the World Health Organization convened a meeting, at which the recommendation was to publish the studies - just not yet. In April, the National Institutes of Health chimed in, also recommending publication. The first study to be published on the topic was in the journal Nature, and was led by the University of Wisconsin-Madison researcher Yoshihiro Kawaoka. It was released in May. The other research group, which authored the new study in Science, was led by Ron Fouchier at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, Netherlands. Both Kawaoka and Fouchier's groups created a mutated version of H5N1 that made it easier to transmit from mammal to mammal. They used ferrets because these animals are a good approximation for how viruses behave in humans. Fouchier's study examines what mutations would be necessary to get the virus airborne. He and colleagues found five mutations consistent in a form of the H5N1 flu virus that could spread among ferrets through the air. None of the ferrets died after developing the flu, the researchers said. In a separate analysis, researchers looked at the likelihood that an airborne avian flu virus would evolve on its own from the H5N1 currently found in nature. This study, also published in Science this week, looked at nearly 4,000 strains of influenza virus and frequently found two of the five mutations that appear to be involved in airborne transmission. These two mutations have been found in viruses from both birds and humans, although not in naturally-occurring H5N1 strains. Derek Smith of the University of Cambridge, who co-authored that study, said at a press briefing that it's possible that only three mutations are necessary for the virus to evolve. Smith's group also did mathematical modeling to look at whether the other mutations could evolve when the bird flu jumps to a human or other mammal. "We find that it is possible for such a virus to evolve three mutations within a single host," Smith said during the press call. If it takes four for five mutations to become airborne, that would be more difficult - but it's unclear just how likely it would be, Smith said. While the Nature study looked at how a bird flu virus could become airborne through mutations and re-assortment with other viruses, the latest research in Science suggests mutations alone could do the trick. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters that the benefits from the Science study, in terms stimulating ideas and pursuing ways to understand the transmissibility, adaptability and pathogenesis of the virus, outweigh the risks that someone will use the data for nefarious purposes. "Does that mean that there's no risk? No, of course not. I can't tell you at all Making the research available generally will hopefully spark input on this topic from researchers in a wide variety of fields, he said. It is technologically possible to create vaccine based on the genetic code of a flu virus strain including this one, researchers said. Several companies are already making H5N1 vaccines. Research is ongoing to accelerate the amount of vaccine doses available by using adjuvants, which are agents that modify the effects of vaccines, Fauci said. There is also work ongoing into using computational sequencing to anticipate every possible influenza strain that could emerge, such that a databank could be established to prepare for the outbreak of any one of them, he said. "Right now we're in a much, much better position than we were when we had vaccine available after the peak of the 2009 H1N1 two years ago," Fauci said. What do you think about the decision to release research like this, in light of the concerns about terrorism? Tell us what you think in the comments.
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And I thought Zombies were the only thing I needed to worry about!
zombies and republicans, or am I repeating myself.
How about ObamaZombies – absolutely frightening yet very real.
@statesvillenc, ObamaZombies!? Can't be. They would starve to death if all they could eat were republican brains.
So basically they genetically altered bird flu and made it airborne. That was a great idea!
How about zombie birds with bird flu
I don't see why not. we already have zombie cows due to mad cow disease.
How about zombie cows with bird flu? No matter how bad it gets, it can always get worse.
Looks like the dinosaurs will have the last laugh.
Hard to laugh when you are extinct.
@YupyupyDavechandler, birds are dinosaurs so they are not extinct. The scientific community now refers to the dinosaurs of the mesozoic period as non-avian dinosaurs.
or blowing out the back of some camero.
Will the US gov. set it free as a new depopulation tool? Perhaps they will attack the innocent at the 2012 Olympics?
are you kidding?
@christian, sadly no, he isn't. Most frightening of all is that he has the right to vote.
Just another pathetic attempt to con the general public (untrained in molecular biology, immunology and genetics) to believe that these influenza "epidemics" are natual (THEY ARE NOT, but LABORATORY MADE), that vaccines are the solution (THEY ARE NOT! Harmful and economically wasteful, and that government is the savior of the people against natual and "bioattack by terrorists" (who else?) (MORE NONSENSE). The CIA-led Al-Qaeda, for example, would not be capable of such a massive research program - Western government are capable.
Think about it. Propaganda to serve the International government for another "world crisis" - they create.
More media sensationalizing. Remember bird flu and the swine flu? What happened? NOTHING.
It would be inaccurate to suggest nothing came of it given the number of deaths attributed to it – but there is nothing to even remotely suggest it could or would be used as a "de-" population tool. Very silly remark.
Actually, there are active cases of H1N1 in the Southern United States. My middle-aged, healthy cousin died of H1N1 just last week. I'm not sure why they are not making others aware of this. Her family was given special vaccinations and they are unsure of how she contracted the virus.
@Chris, and if something had happened, halfwits such as yourself would have complained that we didn't do enough. The world is too complicated for binary thinkers such as yourself. Why not leave the heavy thinking to those with the brain power. You just sit at home and watch the NFL.
This is Bird Flu you dunderhead.
@Chris.
Yes, this is another sloppy attempt to revise facts (this engineering virus was created in a lab from the start), and their attempts at controlling movement at airports in an "emergency epidemic situation" has been largely assumed by the phony "war of terrorism" (led by Western governments) –> the patriot act and THE TSA
Of course they govenment used the hyped situation to create presidential executive orders, continuity of government, UN WHO and CDC changes in regulations, MANDATED VACCINATION PROGRAMS
This is just a continuation of the program, in a effort to possibly fuse the government scams together into a BIO-Terrorism agenda....
Cant keep lighting morons shoes and underwear on fire in airplanes before the public might being to realize the entire WAR ON TERROR IS A FALSE and MANUFACTURED.
Enter: Bioterrorism
Hello "Humman",
Your claims sound pretty wild, and possibly absurd. Could you post some proof?
I can't help but find it funny that the "bird flu" isn't airborne. Perhaps they should call it the "flightless bird flu"?
"what's next fish flu?" – Maummar Gadaffi 2009 UN address.
Any terrorist with the time, money, and intent to cause harm will find a way.
What do you all think about the fact that these studies were published? Are you worried about terrorists using this information?
Elizabeth Landau, CNN
To answer your question: No, I am not afraid. Much nastier diseases are lurking out there, like ebola. I'm willing to bet money that some smart, disgruntled scientist out there is experimenting on a way to weaponize it. I figure that the materials needed to build a bioweapon doesn't cost more than a few hundred thousand dollars. Imagine what a country with much more at its disposal, like Russia or Iran, can do. But I'm not going to lay in my bed at night, quivering in fear because someone has access to information.
A bigger worry is why in the hell is someone trying to make the mutation that allows easy transfer to mammals? SERIOUSLY? Haven't these people watched the movies. "Wow, I made the most dangerous version! See, I knew it could transfer to people! Wait, what's that sound? It sounds like an alarm. And where did my ferret go? Why can't I find my ferret?" And there starts the end of the world...
Sounds like an excellent reason to ban biology and chemistry text books to me. By all means lets do start censoring science out of fear, especially irrational fear. It would be consistent with typical government self-aggrandizement and public hysteria.
The risks from terrorists weaponizing the flu are insignificant. The fact is the flu is doing that all by itself far better than any terrorist could, even were terrorists capable of such an undertaking. In fact were they to make pursuit of such an effort it would help restrain terror, as it would be most unlikely to be productive, very expensive, and most likely result in their exposure. No, I am afraid terrorists are better off with airplanes and explosives.
By the way, it seems likely the exposure rate to H5N1 is very much higher than initially believed, and the rate at which it causes disease quite low, however dangerous when it does.
I think the bigger problem is the public watching too many movies, not the scientists not watching them....
Oh great, now who is going to clean up after all those snotty nosed school children. We are heading for disaster, and NO it is not from global warming either.
According to the liberals, everything is linked to global warming.
@statesvillenc, Well someone has to do science. Right wing nut jobs sure don't. They just manipulate it when the answers aren't profitable for them.
This should have been a story about Kate Upton, what a waste of space.
It's amazing what they can produce in a lab these days. Create a diversion and release the funk, Blame it on the birds.
Too late I've decide that Florida should be the First State to exterminate!!
maybe we should exterminate yours first, you racist.
Since when is Florida a Race?
Digital, here's some bad news for you, here in Florida we are too busy suntanning and getting laid by the most beautiful women in the world to worry about what nerds like you think. Luckily, loser's wishes never come true because they do not have the capability to make anything happen. So, while you keep having an affair with your wrist, we down here will keep enjoying the finer things in life. Please , don't come to visit.
@JCouto, right, I'm thinking more sub-species.
Florida, the whang of the USA!
Surely the end of the world. I am sick with worry.
Heading out for a bike ride have a nice day all!
The most intelligent comment posted, Thanks (no sarcasm intended)
This is why we don't have cures for things like arthritis, and diabetes, and cancer: scientists sit around all day dreaming up ways to obliterate humanity. This will end bad.... for most of us anyway.
@russ, I can't help but think that you are a complete id10t. You seem to have your head lodged up your posterior. I would suggest you remove it but given the composition of your brains, perhaps that is the best place for it.
There may be some truth to the premise behind Stephen King's book "The Stand".
Try "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston. He has written other several good books on biological weapons, too.
@Tom, you mean that God and Satan would have a final battle with each other and the battleground would be the American Midwest. Ya, I can see how this article would indicate that.
Sorry but some would disagree with the proposition he's written any 'good' books.
Successful yes....good, no.
This is some scary stuff. I mean, sometimes I don't even want to wake up. Do you ever get tired of the struggle to survive, only to read something like this? Maybe I am grumpy and feeling so-so, but there are times when I don't feel like trying anymore.
Stay away from open windows or get back on your meds.
There's always xanax.
Time we all started wearing those paper masks like you see some folks in Asia wearing. Either that or kill all the birds before they kill us fiirst. I don't eat chicken anyway, but I would really miss turkey.
This is so irresponsible and stupid. Why they would create a virus that has the potential to kill a large % or the population is just insane. These mad scientists should be forced to destroy their research papers and the virus.
Oh well, in a few months it won't matter as the US and or Israel will start a war against Iran. Then a global disaster will occur due to this war.
you can thank the Bush administration for this one
@paz, I can't imagine thanking the Bush Administration for anything.
"Both Kawaoka and Fouchier's groups created a mutated version of H5N1 that made it easier to transmit from mammal to mammal."
Sci-fi movies tell me that this kind of thing always turns out badly.
Although there is a risk of bio-terrorism in having this study published, it also allows the scientific community to understand how natural mutations of the virus can occur and develop the appropriate vaccines to prevent and combat epidemics.
@Indigo, that is what prayer is for. Knowledge never did nothin for humanity. It just got us kicked from the garden of eden.
@Robert: And what exactly has prayer done for us? Oh wait, that's right. Nothing.
Im about at the end of my usefullness,i hope they do de-populate the world
hello Americans. This is what your army did in Iraqi women
Anything is possible, including having a rabid bat drink saliva from your mouth while you are sleeping. 3 months later, you develop muscle twitching, a sore throat and a nasty temper, 2 days later, you go to the ER because you can't swallow water. Naturally, they dismiss you as a psych case with the flu. You go back to the ER, this time you have a 104 fever, you are dehydrated, you are having spasms in your throat and you can't walk, although you are more than capable of biting and scratching hospital staff members or anyone else than approaches you. You lie in an ER bed for 19 hours before they finally admit you. After 4 days, 25 medical imaging studies and 10 clueless doctors, they put you in a drug induced coma, you live for another 50 days before they pull the plug. A study of your brain shows negribodies but no one knows how the hell you contracted rabies. There are worse deaths than H5N1, and bats can easily get into your home and they do get thirsty.
Well, aren't you a little ray of sunshine!
This is nothing more or less than a risk that we have always been facing. Viruses are a naturally occurring organism and one day it will come to pass that one will elude our science, and many millions will die fr4om it before we can control it. THat is not to say that we are doomed. A sizeable number of people will survive just like with all plagues, and life will go on.
Perhaps the reason for making the H1N1 report public is the same reason countries involved in the Cold War allowed certain sensitive reports, concerning the stockpile and capability of nukes they each had, to leak. This kind of "sharing of information" ensured each side knew the others capabilities, amounting to a offensive-defensive move. Obviously they never gave true numbers, but nonetheless these reports were often "leaked." I assume the same holds true for the reason behind the publication of the H1N1 report.
If western allies "allow" other countries to obtain the new information, they have successfully mutated H1N1, then that knowledge ensures other countries that will, or have already mutated the strain themselves, know the western allies are in a position to strike back if a biological attack using H1N1 were to occur. The whole idea sickens me and quite frankly scares the hell out of me. I guess I will never understand the evil side of the human psyche. These things are always done in the name of "defense," but" playing" with biological weapons can only lead to mass deaths in all countries warring whether they are participating in the war or not, and eventually it can only lead to the absolute destruction of mankind. Will someone from these governments please tell me... who wins then?
Where I wrote ...
These things are always done in the name of "defense," but" playing" with biological weapons can only lead to mass deaths in all countries warring whether they are participating in the war or not,..."
What I meant to say was,
..." playing with biological weapons can only lead to mass deaths in all countries, whether they are participating in the war or not."
I simply meant that with bio weapons it will not matter if a country is involved in the war because bio weapons cannot be contained to the target country. All countries will be affected, in this age of ground and aerial mass transit.
why do we let these numb...be in charge in the first place? hello...
Gee Frank, I'd say your hypothetical patient won the 'reverse lottery' at least a couple of times. First because transmission from exposure to saliva orally would be very unlikely to transmit the disease. It does, but very, very rarely. Secondly it's unimaginably unlikely a wandering bat would chose to drink from their mouth, in the times open enough for them to do so. It's far more likely one would become entangled in hair or clothing and bite. This would likely be discovered at some point, as one would tend to find a dead carcass of a bat in one's hair, bedding or clothing...sooner or later. Anyway the chances of a bat wander into one's home and drinking from one's mount is, shall we say, a bit remote. By the way, PEP is mandated if the the bat is found where it was present when the patient was sleeping... But in any event, bad break three is the long latency period. It's certainly possible....but not normal, and in most cases symptoms would have spinal taps being examined and cultured within a few weeks at most. Finally you poor patient obviously went to a sub-standard facility, and the Milwaukee protocol, which can save many end-stage victims, failed in this case .... No, I'm afraid ordinary flu far more likely to kill than rabies, especially for vulnerable populations.... A virulent flu might well be the very worst case epidemic, killing more victims than any other illness, with the exception of smallpox, which (hopefully) is a thing of the past.
Nice reply with cogent information succinctly stated – and likely beond the comprehension of 80% of the people that post... But I thank you for writing it...
Sounds like somebody FFed up big time!
This isn't news – CNN. Scientists have been saying this since 2004. Not only that, but if you look at the history of global flu pandemics, they absolutely DO occur on a periodic basis, usually killing into the tens or hundreds of millions of people. However, now that much of the world is concentrated in densely populated cities instead of spread out across millions of square miles of land, the next flu pandemic could be billion+ of people if the medical community doesn't sufficiently anticipate it.
The human population of seven billion people could benefit from a bit of pruning and reduction. A global pandemic killing off, say, 15% of us may just be healthy. (Larger numbers of people dying than that may create serious problems, but as far as population reduction goes, 30% would be a more desirable number, of course.) Such a pandemic may help make humanity healthier and stronger and better withstand similar pandemics in the future.
I am not sure that the Black Death that killed off as much as a third of Europe's population in the 14 century was a bad thing. Pretty soon, new continents were discovered and conquered from Europe, scientific discoveries were made, great music was composed, and later the industrial revolution came about. The Black Death may have made the European population stronger. Why are we so afraid of nature?
Wouldn't Europe (and maybe the world) be weaker, more overpopulated, and poorer if the Black Death had NOT killed off up to a third of Europe's population in the 14th century?
Send it to Mecca!
I am horrified to read about this research and the consequence if this knowledge falls into the wrong hands. Is there a need for this research? I would think so as this knowledge foretell in advance the threat of the H5N1. It allow the development of solutions to the threat. But I shudder at the wrong use of this knowledge.
So, I have to ask. How many people in the world are really capable of using the information in the research? Of those, how many can afford or have access to the millions of dollars worth of equipment needed to actually follow through? And finally, of those, how many people who are that well educated do you think would actually tend toward terrorism? I think you have better odds of dying from a lightning strike. And if that worries you, I suggest you put your car away since the odds you will die in a car crash in the next year is around 1 in 100. Save your horror for something that is meaningful.
Poo! Maybe we can have Mitt help us out of this mess...oh wait, he is busy building his elevator garage...sorry...ass!
bird flu is a dangerous disease and passing on to humans will cause distress and disease..
it will help to burn those birds and have the others vaccined...
Maybe through this process of trial and error we lose 80% of our planetary population...
Funny thing is, it's a win win situation for everybody. Planet Earth gets a breather and we get to enjoy the value of
human life again.
I believe that's how AIDS was manufactured also, as a de-population tool.
This is great.. Natures own population control, I like it.
Twelve Monkeys...Twelve Monkeys
Interesting....this coupled with a "potentially hazardous" leak in a lab at the CDC where such viruses are investigated, and a man in Oregon having the bubonic plague. Does anyone else see a pattern being shaped here?
Not to mention the "superbugs" being developed from antibiotics in meat. Does it take rocket science to figure some of these things out?
This will be the winter of our discontent. Frackers told the hose company in NY that they were told that all the gas had to be out of the ground by the first of the year... if you were aware of the speed and lack of care that every mineral was being harvested you would wonder...hey what's the rush bub?
lots of canned goods, water, generator, rabbit getting supplies, and the shots...well...maybe next lifetime...oh and yes, get tents.
I would feel much safer if these papers were not published until a vaccine had also been developed for the airborne virus.
Just because we can, it doesn't mean we should. Let nature control the progression of these viruses, not man.
A Drug Cure will always come too late to save Humanity
In 1997 the pandemic was stopped in its tracks in Hong Kong. The system adopted was not reliant upon a drug cure but that prevention was better than cure. It worked and Ken Shortridge who devised the strategy was given the Asian equivalent of the Nobel Prize in medicine, The Prince Mahidol Award. By doing this Prof. Shortridge stopped a bird flu pandemic starting and which had the propensity to kill millions (the only one ever to do so and prevent the deaths of incalculable numbers). The premise was, ‘don’t let it start in the first place’.
Why has the establishment therefore forgotten the first dictum of medical health that ‘prevention is better than cure?’
http://avian-influenza.cirad.fr/content/download/1931/11789/file/Kennedy-F-Shortridge.pdf
And why have those who are advocating a drug cure not taken on-board this system that has worked? This question is postulated because the Swine Flu pandemic showed that with reference to the Spanish Flu in 1918 which took up to 100 million lives, that a cure would come too late. In this respect it was not until 7 months 1 week that a vaccine was created and then it had to be manufactured and thereafter distributed to the masses (a logistics nightmare). In the second wave of the Spanish Flu, after the virus had mutated into a human-to-human killer, it did its worst between week 16 and week 26, some 1 month 1 week before a cure was found for the Swine Flu pandemic.
Therefore whatever way we look at it a drug vaccine will come too late to save us, no matter who you are from the president of the United States downwards. Fact not fiction.
Margaret Chan, Director-General of the WHO says that it is only a matter of time not when the killer virus will emerge – may be next week, next month, next year or whenever; but it will happen sometime and such a pandemic according to pandemic researchers is overdue. Therefore we living on borrowed time and we have to adopt Prof. Shortridge's strategy for the good of all humanity.
Dr David Hill
Chief Executive
World Innovation Foundation
Yoshi's lab used to be in my building, on my floor. Always got nervous using equipment in their lab.
I no longer read articles on CNN.com, I just rush down the the comment sections to read all of the crap people who don't know better like to write down. It is an endless source of entertainment.
If the vaccine is already being made, then why isn't it being distributed? I would think it should be included in the annual flu vaccines. The bird flu could be a very big catastrophe, because it has killed about half of the people who get it; the only reason it hasn't been a big epidmic is that it is difficult to transmit from human to human; but than can easily change.
The human race can still be wiped out be disease; we have no treatment for viral diseases except for vaccines and only if they are given ahead of time.
These scientist aren't going to be happy until they create a satan bug ! Goodbye humanity !
huumaan said:
"Just another pathetic attempt to con the general public (untrained in molecular biology, immunology and genetics) to believe that these influenza "epidemics" are natual (THEY ARE NOT, but LABORATORY MADE), that vaccines are the solution (THEY ARE NOT! Harmful and economically wasteful, and that government is the savior of the people against natual and "bioattack by terrorists" (who else?) (MORE NONSENSE). The CIA-led Al-Qaeda, for example, would not be capable of such a massive research program – Western government are capable.
Think about it. Propaganda to serve the International government for another "world crisis" – they create."
Well said. I think it was Michael Crichton's book "Next" that really opened my eyes to these possibilities. So basically it goes like this (if I'm understanding what you wrote correctly)
they create the real problem and the fake solution? good post my friend.
With our massive population, we're very overdue for a missive worldwide epidemic.
I hate to sound like a lot of the loonies on here, but honestly we could use it.
Especially when you consider that the majority of the losses would be coming from areas where there is limited access to healthcare, etc. Africa, the Middle East, parts fo Asia, and Eastern Europe are home to a lot of suffering. This would end it and buy precious time.
The forest of Man needs to have the underbrush cleared out.
Don't whine, developed countries will escape the brunt of it.